World war risk

Full-scale war now in its fifth year. A local ceasefire around Russian-occupied Oleshky (Kherson region), brokered by Melania Trump, took effect on Oct 27 to let aid in — but Russia launched 16 ballistic missiles and 280 drones the same night, killing a woman in Kyiv. A new round of US-brokered talks is expected in November.

War between the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues. The RSF controls much of Darfur and the west, and on Oct 27 its drones hit a Khartoum power station, cutting electricity across Khartoum and Al-Jazira states. US-led ceasefire efforts have produced no breakthrough.

In September the TPLF launched a multi-front offensive against federal forces, pushing Ethiopia back into war. Ethiopia and Eritrea cut diplomatic ties on Oct 1, and Crisis Group warns Eritrea could be drawn in — turning it into an interstate war.

Civil war between the military junta and an array of ethnic armed groups and resistance forces has continued since the 2021 coup, with frequent airstrikes on populated areas.

After a US–Israeli war with Iran earlier this year, a fragile ceasefire is in place but talks have stalled for weeks. The Pentagon has drawn up plans for a large strike if ordered, and President Trump says he is weighing a deal against action to "finish them off." The UN nuclear watchdog has flagged Iran's unverified uranium stockpile.

Hezbollah opened fire in March in support of Iran, triggering an Israeli offensive; Israeli forces now occupy much of southern Lebanon and strike almost daily. Reuters reports Hezbollah has spent months rearming with Iranian funds for a possible new round.

A ceasefire has formally been in place since October 2025, but Israeli strikes and shootings continue, and Israeli forces are expanding control along the so-called "Yellow Line," which is hardening into a de facto border.

The Houthis are fighting Saudi-backed forces inside Yemen, and Saudi Arabia is intercepting Houthi missiles and drones. Crisis Group lists both Yemen and Saudi Arabia among its October conflict-risk alerts.

Pakistan and the Taliban government fought a border war this year. Crisis Group recorded deteriorations in both countries in September and flagged both for October.

Jihadist insurgents, led by the al-Qaeda-linked JNIM, keep the capacity to strike government positions across multiple regions of Burkina Faso and neighbouring juntas.

Armed groups including the M23 rebels, which UN experts say are backed by Rwanda, remain active in North and South Kivu despite 2025 peace agreements.

On Sep 30 Moscow warned it could use nuclear weapons if NATO tried to isolate Kaliningrad. CEPA counts at least 17 attacks with proven or suspected Russian involvement on frontline NATO states and Moldova in a single month, including an Oct 5 incident on the Latvian border.

Daily PLA activity continues around Taiwan. On Oct 18 Taiwan's coast guard drove away 16 Chinese coast guard, research and fishing vessels in what Taipei called "hybrid warfare," and Beijing warned Taipei to "bear the consequences" after a water-cannon incident near the Pratas Islands.

North Korea tested a cluster warhead for its tactical ballistic missiles on Oct. 31 and said four types will be fielded by year-end. Seoul told G20 ministers that the Sept. 21 DMZ blast that wounded three South Korean soldiers was caused by mines North Korea deliberately planted. There has been no exchange of fire.

At an Oct 23 rally President Trump said "We'll take care of Cuba on our way back from Iran," and on Oct 24 the head of US Southern Command urged Cubans to "seize the moment." A US fuel blockade has been squeezing the island since January.

Indian border guards killed two Pakistani civilians in the Bedian sector on Oct 2, and both sides summoned diplomats over conflicting accounts. Pakistan has extended its airspace ban on Indian aircraft until Nov 24.

On Oct 20 China sent navy ships to shadow an American warship near a disputed shoal, the same day as a separate standoff near Taiwan. Coast-guard confrontations with the Philippines and Taiwan keep recurring.

Tensions remain high along the disputed border, where confrontations continue; Crisis Group warns that renewed major hostilities are a real risk.

Long-running friction over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and Taiwan. Prediction markets price a small but non-zero chance of a direct China–Japan military clash before 2027.

After US forces captured Nicolás Maduro in January, Washington recognised Delcy Rodríguez as interim president. Reconciliation talks are ongoing and the US lifted sanctions on National Assembly head Jorge Rodríguez in mid-October; no election date is set.