Russia–Ukraine War
WarStatus as of 2026-11-03
Situation
Full-scale war now in its fifth year. A local ceasefire around Russian-occupied Oleshky (Kherson region), brokered by Melania Trump, took effect on Oct 27 to let aid in — but Russia launched 16 ballistic missiles and 280 drones the same night, killing a woman in Kyiv. A new round of US-brokered talks is expected in November.
Market odds
- Russia–Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31, 2026Higher = more peaceful outcome12%▼1
- Russia–Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Mar 31, 2027Higher = more peaceful outcome36%▲2
Latest news
- Russia and Ukraine agree to a large prisoner exchange as talks conclude with no major breakthrough
Two days of U.S.-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi ended with a large POW swap agreed but no progress on territory.
- Russia and Ukraine hold nearly 4 hours of U.S.-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi
First US-mediated Russia-Ukraine round since February ran about four hours, focusing on prisoners and security guarantees; talks continue Nov. 11.
- A day before US-brokered talks, Russia and Ukraine batter each other with strikes
Russia and Ukraine trade large drone and missile strikes on energy targets on the eve of the Abu Dhabi talks.
- Europe to join U.S.-brokered Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi, defying Kremlin objections
France says European officials will attend the Nov. 10-11 Abu Dhabi talks, though the Kremlin had ruled out a European role.
- Ukrainian drones hit key bridge, power stations in Russia's Rostov Oblast, governor says
Rostov's governor says Ukrainian drones damaged a bridge on a strategic highway and power facilities, days before peace talks.
