China–Japan (East China Sea)
WatchStatus as of 2026-11-03
Situation
Long-running friction over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and Taiwan. Prediction markets price a small but non-zero chance of a direct China–Japan military clash before 2027.
Market odds
Latest news
- China-Japan summit unlikely at APEC amid continued tensions
A Xi–Takaichi meeting at the Shenzhen APEC summit looks unlikely as the dispute over Takaichi's Taiwan remarks drags on.
- Japan works to shield Takaichi from any Xi snub at China's APEC summit
Tokyo is maneuvering to avoid a public snub of PM Takaichi by Xi at the APEC summit amid a year-long Taiwan row.
- Few signs of thaw in Japan-China relations one year after Takaichi’s Taiwan remarks
A year after Takaichi's Taiwan contingency remarks, Tokyo refuses to retract them and Beijing keeps diplomatic and economic pressure on.
- US and Japan, long alarmed by China's aggression, agree to establish missile-production facility
Meeting in Cebu, the US and Japanese defense chiefs agreed to jointly produce air-to-air missiles in Japan to bolster deterrence against China.
- US, Japan rehearse coordinated strikes to challenge PLA control of waters near Taiwan
Keen Sword drills across Kyushu and Japan's southwestern islands practised anti-ship strikes and mobile missile deployments.
