Iran vs US & Israel
Armed conflictStatus as of 2026-11-03
Situation
After a US–Israeli war with Iran earlier this year, a fragile ceasefire is in place but talks have stalled for weeks. The Pentagon has drawn up plans for a large strike if ordered, and President Trump says he is weighing a deal against action to "finish them off." The UN nuclear watchdog has flagged Iran's unverified uranium stockpile.
Market odds
- US–Iran ceasefire holds through Dec 31Higher = more peaceful outcome<1%▼29
- US invades Iran before 20276%▼4
- US formally declares war on Iran in 20262%▼1
Latest news
- Qatar intensifies U.S.-Iran peace efforts as Gulf security fears persist
Qatar says it sees progress in mediating between Washington and Tehran, while Gulf states remain worried about renewed fighting.
- Qatar sees 'progress' in US-Iran talks after White House meeting
After meeting Trump, Qatar said US-Iran mediation is making progress; Trump says he will hold off new strikes but keep the blockade.
- Qatar PM to meet Trump: What’s the latest on US-Iran negotiations?
Explainer on the state of US-Iran talks as Qatar's prime minister heads to the White House to push mediation.
- 'No good options': Iran war caught between Trump's midterm troubles, Israel's election shake-up
Analysis of how Trump's midterm losses and Israeli political turmoil complicate decisions on resuming war or a Qatar-brokered deal with Iran.
- Trump confirms new US strikes on Iran’s Qeshm island
Trump called the latest strikes on Iranian air defences on Qeshm island 'minor' while saying talks with Tehran continue; Iran says it downed a US drone.
