United States–Cuba

High tension

Status as of 2026-11-03

Situation

At an Oct 23 rally President Trump said "We'll take care of Cuba on our way back from Iran," and on Oct 24 the head of US Southern Command urged Cubans to "seize the moment." A US fuel blockade has been squeezing the island since January.

Market odds

US strike on Cuba by Dec 318%
US–Cuba military clash in 20266%▼4
US invades Cuba in 20262%▼1

Sources

Task & Purpose · 2026-10-24'Now is the time' for Cubans to 'act' says top US military commander in South Americataskandpurpose.com
Wikipedia2026 Cuban crisisen.wikipedia.org

Other flashpoints

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