Ethiopia (Tigray) & Eritrea
WarStatus as of 2026-11-03
Situation
In September the TPLF launched a multi-front offensive against federal forces, pushing Ethiopia back into war. Ethiopia and Eritrea cut diplomatic ties on Oct 1, and Crisis Group warns Eritrea could be drawn in — turning it into an interstate war.
Market odds
No active prediction market for this flashpoint yet.
Sources
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