How the numbers work

We don't invent probabilities. The headline number is built from prediction markets, the map colours are editorial, and both are explained here.

1. The headline number

It answers one question: will two major military powers fight each other directly before 2027? We take these Polymarket questions:

• NATO–Russia military clash by Dec 31, 202610%▼2
• China–Taiwan military clash before 20272%
• China–Japan military clash before 20272%▼1
• North Korea invades South Korea before 20271%▼1

and combine them as the chance that at least one happens: 1 − (1−p₁)(1−p₂)(1−p₃)(1−p₄). This treats the questions as independent, which slightly overstates the risk if they move together. Each market has its own resolution rules — what counts as a "military clash" — linked from the question.

2. Map colours

• War Interstate or large-scale civil war with sustained casualties
• Armed conflict Localised fighting, air strikes, border clashes, or a fragile ceasefire after a war
• High tension Military build-ups, drills, threats and incidents rising
• Watch Latent dispute, currently quiet

Levels are set by our editors from news reports and conflict trackers (Crisis Group, CFR, ACLED summaries) and reviewed when the situation changes. Each flashpoint page shows the date and links to the reports used.

3. Coming next: your forecast

Soon every flashpoint will have a community forecast — you'll enter your own probability, and we'll show how people in different countries see the same conflict.

Limits

Prediction markets can be thin, manipulated or wrong, especially on rare events. Nothing here is a guarantee or advice.