World War 3 odds
Chance of a direct military clash between major powers before 2027
▼3 pts 7 days · 4 prediction markets combined · How is this calculated?
The four clashes behind the number
At war right now (4)
Russia–Ukraine War
WarFull-scale war now in its fifth year. A local ceasefire around Russian-occupied Oleshky (Kherson region), brokered by Melania Trump, took effect on Oct 27 to let aid in — but Russia launched 16 ballistic missiles and 280 drones the same night, killing a woman in Kyiv. A new round of US-brokered talks is expected in November.
Sudan Civil War
WarWar between the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues. The RSF controls much of Darfur and the west, and on Oct 27 its drones hit a Khartoum power station, cutting electricity across Khartoum and Al-Jazira states. US-led ceasefire efforts have produced no breakthrough.
Ethiopia (Tigray) & Eritrea
WarIn September the TPLF launched a multi-front offensive against federal forces, pushing Ethiopia back into war. Ethiopia and Eritrea cut diplomatic ties on Oct 1, and Crisis Group warns Eritrea could be drawn in — turning it into an interstate war.
Myanmar Civil War
WarCivil war between the military junta and an array of ethnic armed groups and resistance forces has continued since the 2021 coup, with frequent airstrikes on populated areas.
FAQ
What are the odds of World War 3?
Prediction markets put the chance of a direct military clash between major powers before 2027 at 16%, combining NATO–Russia, China–Taiwan, China–Japan and North–South Korea. A direct clash is not automatically a world war, so the true chance of WW3 is lower.
Which conflicts could escalate into World War 3?
The flashpoints that involve nuclear powers directly: NATO–Russia around Ukraine and the Baltics, China–Taiwan, China–Japan in the East China Sea, and the Korean Peninsula.
Where is there war right now?
Flashpoints currently rated 'War' on this map: Russia–Ukraine War, Sudan Civil War, Ethiopia (Tigray) & Eritrea, Myanmar Civil War.
How is the number calculated?
We take live Polymarket prices for each clash question and compute the chance that at least one happens: 1 − (1−p₁)(1−p₂)(1−p₃)(1−p₄). It updates every 10 minutes.
20 conflicts with prediction-market odds and sources →